Lade Inhalt...

What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts?

©2021 Masterarbeit 104 Seiten

Zusammenfassung

Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society’s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an average of 19.4 TCs entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility in the Western North Pacific, and nine TCs moved over the islands. Consequently, the Philippines have the highest number of landfalling storms and the highest rate of severe TC worldwide. In turn, the TCs that move over the islands into the South China Sea frequently affect the coast of Vietnam. Through a spatial assessment of TC vulnerability, Nguyen et al. (2019) have demonstrated a high or very high susceptibility in most parts of coastal Vietnam. The most extreme event over the WNP in the last century was Typhoon Haiyan, which caused 6,300 deaths and widespread economic and socioeconomic damage. This significant susceptibility implies the high importance of improving weather forecast models for greater predictive capability. In recent decades, the quality of forecasting tropical cyclone tracks has increased steadily at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast and other numerical weather prediction centers. Nevertheless, intensity predictions still present more significant challenges.

Details

Seiten
104
Erscheinungsform
Originalausgabe
Jahr
2021
ISBN (PDF)
9783959936132
ISBN (Buch)
9783959931137
Sprache
Englisch
Institution / Hochschule
Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) – IMK
Erscheinungsdatum
2022 (Mai)
Note
1,7
Schlagworte
Tropical Cyclones Ensemble Forecasts Error prediction weather climate cyclone forecast
Zurück

Titel: What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts?
book preview page numper 1
book preview page numper 2
book preview page numper 3
book preview page numper 4
book preview page numper 5
book preview page numper 6
book preview page numper 7
book preview page numper 8
book preview page numper 9
book preview page numper 10
book preview page numper 11
book preview page numper 12
book preview page numper 13
book preview page numper 14
book preview page numper 15
book preview page numper 16
book preview page numper 17
book preview page numper 18
book preview page numper 19
book preview page numper 20
book preview page numper 21
104 Seiten
Cookie-Einstellungen